The EU after Trump’s re-election: It’s Now or Never

“This Europe has a common destiny and a common future, what could be more obvious than a common policy?”

(Franz Josef Strauss, German Politician, 1915-1988)

Now that Trump returns as president of the United States, even with a Republican majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives this time, Europe is bracing itself for the consequences. The general expectation is that Europe will have a hard time in the areas of security, economy and international cooperation. It seems like a perfect storm. The EU is already being tested by political controversy in various member states, economic headwinds and Russian aggression. Trump's return will hit Europe hard and further weaken the EU's position in the world. And yet, Europe might also emerge stronger, if the member states finally realize that they cannot make it on their own and really start working on European unification. The EU must act, and act quickly. It's now or never.

For decades, the US has urged Europe to spend more money on its own defense. In vain. Even when Trump threatened to leave NATO during his first term, Europe did virtually nothing, and kept spending less than 2% of its GDP on security. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 Europe finaly became aware of its vulnerability. Too late, even though Europe has so far contributed almost double to the Ukrainian fight against the Russians, compared to the US. Nonetheless, Europe is still completely dependent on American weapons and intelligence for its own security.

For now there remains some uncertainty about the precise impact of Trump's second term on trans-Atlantic relations, but Europe must assume that Trump will make a deal with Putin that does not involve the EU in any way. It is evident that such a deal is a tragedy for Ukraine and a huge risk for Europe, as the Russian aggression will be rewarded with territorial expansion. That outcome is strongly reminiscent of the 1938 Munich Agreement, which gave Hitler control of the Sudetenland. Chamberlain triumphantly shouted "peace for our time", but it could not prevent the outbreak of the second World War less than a year later. Trump will probably also pride himself on such a one-sided peace deal. Moreover, the unpredictable and resentment-driven Donald Trump might withdraw the United States from NATO or, more simply, let Europe know that the US is no longer willing to come to Europe's aid. Even the withdrawal of American troops from Europe is not unthinkable, if the Trump administration's policies really turn out to be as nationalistic and isolationist as his past MAGA election campaign suggests. Trump has threatened to do so before, and his election victory gives him the power to put his words into action. It will seriously disrupt the balance of power in Europe and increase the chance of a large-scale conflict with Russia.

Trump's 'America First' policy could also bring tough economic times in Europe. He is threatening import duties of 10-20% on all products that the EU exports to America, with major consequences for the earning capacity of European companies. The EU has no choice but to respond with its own import duties, making a trade war inevitable. Given the stronger American economy, higher European energy prices and stricter European regulations, a trade war will initially hit Europe disproportionately hard.

European leaders have congratulated Trump on his victory, which is no doubt aimed at preserving trans-Atlantic ties. It won't help. Trump will continue his isolationist course and withdraw from countless international partnerships and treaties. Europe has no choice but to take an independent course on the world stage and even has to take into account a hostile relationship with the US. This has enormous implications, which only a strong and united EU can tackle. The question is whether the EU in its current capacity can handle that. For the time being, preparations are seriously inadequate. The EU is betting on deals with Trump to prevent a trade war and says it will hit back hard if they are rejected. Trump's protectionism will initially be in his favor, simply because Europe exports more to the US than the other way around. Ultimately, a trade war turns out badly for both sides, resulting in higher prices, rising inflation and declining prosperity.

The EU is also working on a greater defense effort and strategic autonomy. However, European defense cooperation is limited and the pace at which collective deterrence takes shape varies enormously per member state. The countries in western and southern Europe are lagging behind, while eastern European countries are significantly increasing their defense. Poland, for example, now has the largest army of all EU countries and is spending more than 4% of its GDP on rapidly building a modern army. The nuclear deterrent is also a difficult issue. Europe must be able to retaliate against the Russian threat with nuclear weapons, with the aim of deterring the Russians from using their nuclear weapons. That deterrent will fail if the US removes its nuclear weapons from Europe. France is the only nuclear power within the EU, and although Emanuel Macron has shown willingness to use it for other EU countries, it remains the French president who decides on the use of those nuclear weapons.

Now that Trump moves back into the White House, the trans-Atlantic relationship between the US and the EU is coming under great pressure. It is evident that Europe will suffer the most, and Putin and Xi will applaud deteriorating US-European relations. It is very doubtful whether European leaders are able to maintain unity and act together as a true European Union. The Paris-Berlin axis has been weakened by two leaders who have a bad relationship with each other and have been turned away by their voters. The Eastern European countries accuse the other member states of not contributing sufficiently to curbing Russian aggression. The Hungarian leader behaves like Putin's errand boy and Trump's briefcase bearer. Not exactly the ideal starting position to compete in a world order dominated by the US and China. And yet, Europe has no choice. No single European country will survive in the emerging force field on its own. Europe's only chance is a strong and self-confident EU. It’s now or never.