Brexit, the utopian promise fueled by big data

Nationalism is power-hunger tempered by self-deception.

George Orwell

“Let’s take back control”. As a sovereign nation, a bright future awaited Great Britain. Independently of the EU, the country could negotiate favorable trade agreements, unhindered by European bureaucracy and restrictive regulations. This would result in greater competitiveness and prosperity for its citizens. The UK would gain control and allocate funds that went to the EU to national priorities like healthcare and infrastructure.

It was the promise of the key figures behind the Leave campaign; Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings, Arron Banks, Matthew Elliott, and their collaboration with radical financiers and influential tabloids.

A utopian promise, according to most economists and international institutions such as the IMF, the Bank of England, and the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development). Brexit would actually have negative economic consequences for the United Kingdom. Many economists predicted a weakened economy due to lower investment and consumption, a decline in the value of the pound, and a worsened competitive position due to reduced exports to EU countries. British government models predicted that British households would be £4,300 poorer on average by 2030.

Prime Minister Cameron and his cabinet campaigned in favor of EU membership and warned of the risks. Despite ministers like Boris Johnson and Michael Gove supporting the Leave campaign, the Conservative government appeared unconcerned about the referendum and unprepared for a possible Brexit. In a sense, that’s understandable, as there was little indication that Leave would win. A large majority of the House of Commons supported EU membership, virtually all trade unions supported it, businesses and employers' organizations supported it, and civil society supported it. And yet, the public voted for Leave. The shock was immense when the result of the Brexit referendum was announced on June 23, 2016: of the more than 72% of eligible voters who cast their ballots, 51.9% voted for Leave and 48.1% for Remain. At that moment it became clear that no concrete exit strategy had been worked out and the outcome of the referendum had been seriously underestimated. Financial markets didn't anticipate Leave to win either and reacted extremely negatively: the pound and stocks plummeted, there was panic among investors and a flight to safe havens. These effects were felt for a long time to come.

How could the Leave campaign be so successful, despite gloomy predictions about the economic impact and Remain support from numerous social organizations? There is no simple answer to that; various political and economic interests and strategic motives were at play in the Leave campaign. There's no doubt, however, that the resources deployed by the Leave movement created significant momentum; the large-scale use of big data and data-driven campaigning was a first in political history and, along with targeted media use, played a key role in the campaign. "Vote Leave" was the official Brexit campaign, managed by a dedicated campaign agency with its own board, management, and professional campaign staff. "Vote Leave" was thwarted by a second campaign, "Leave.EU" founded by Nigel Farage and funded by businessman Arron Banks. Leave.EU worked with social media agencies and collaborated with Cambridge Analytica, an organization that collected data from millions of Facebook users without consent, through personality quizzes and apps. Not only participants but also their friends were profiled without their consent. In total, data from an estimated 50 to 87 million people was stolen. Campaign teams analyzed vast amounts of data—from online surveys, social media use, polls, apps, and activist feedback to voting behavior and demographics. This data was used to segment voters into precise subgroups, based on so called ‘psychographic profiles’ like personality, fears and preferences. These psychographic profiles were used for targeted Facebook ads and direct mail, and turned out to be highly successful. The Leave campaign was thus able to send hundreds of different messages, ensuring each target group received precisely the message that resonated most psychologically, such as pro-sovereignty or anti-immigration. Algorithms and machine learning determined which slogan and which medium would be most effective and data models were personalizing the messages. The Leave campaign won thanks to this approach of microtargeting, psychological profile management, and data-driven management of campaign messages. There is no doubt that this method convinced many undecided voters, and voters who would otherwise have stayed away, to vote for Brexit.

Now, nine years after the referendum and five years after Brexit has taken effect, the tide has turned. Recent polls show that a majority of 55 – 67% of the British voters see Brexit is a failure and many of them want to rejoin the EU. A growing number of British politicians are also openly expressing their doubts about Brexit, admitting that the country has not benefited from it.

The utopian promise gives way to reality. The sovereign nation, a mere anachronism in a globalized world where large power blocs dominate geopolitics, has not delivered economic independence or complete control over borders. The UK has not become more prosperous, but has lost economic growth and productivity. Imports have become more expensive, and British citizens' purchasing power has declined. Leaving the EU has cost the average British household around 1,000 pounds a year, according to estimates from the Bank of England and analysis by leading economic institutes. Brexit has exacerbated polarization, and a series of Conservative governments has only brought political instability. Taking back control is a bubble bursting in slow motion. And how could it be otherwise? The populist Leave campaign was rife with lies and half-truths. Like the claim that the UK would save "£350 million a week" after leaving the EU, which it could then spend on the NHS. This was a gross figure, not including the UK's EU rebate, the rebate, and funds the UK received back from Brussels. The net figure was considerably lower. Or the guarantee that the UK could leave the EU without negative trade consequences and that it would retain access to the single market without additional conditions. And the denial that there would be additional bureaucracy or border controls after Brexit, which would ensure the smooth flow of people and goods.

Great Britain is returning to the EU. Rejoining in the short term may be premature, but Starmer's policies are already focused on strengthening cooperation across a wide range of areas and building structural, stable relations through a Strategic Partnership with the EU. The bad news is that Reform UK is achieving strong election results and has a chance of becoming the largest party, while Farage is fiercely opposed to Labour's attempts to expand cooperation with the EU or change existing Brexit agreements. Whether he can maintain his nationalist rhetoric should he ever move into 10 Downing Street remains to be seen. He might well break the record for shortest term in office ever, currently held by political lightweight Liz Truss.