From allies to opponents, the US – European controversy

"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves."

Abraham Lincoln, America’s 16^th president (1809 - 1865)

Donald Trump's wrecking ball is reaching further and is now also hitting Europe, which has finally had to deal with a new reality since the publication of the National Security Strategy (NSS) on December 5. The Old Continent and the US are no longer obvious allies. The 33-page document outlines this US administration’s security vision, with far-reaching consequences. The NSS revitalizes the Monroe Doctrine according to a MAGA recipe that focuses exclusively on American interests in the world, even if it conflicts with international treaties signed by the US. According to the US administration document, Europe is suffering from 'civilizational decline' and in addition Trump accuses European leaders of 'weakness' in interviews about it’s implications. Well, Europe heard that from the Russian president several times, but so far it wasn’t parroted by an ally yet. The US also notes in the NSS that it does not shy away from supporting Europe's extreme right-wing parties in order to impose its will on Europe. Also a proven modus operandi of the Kremlin, which clearly underlines the break with Europe as stated in the NSS.

Europe was already dealing with a war of aggression by a Russian president who rules as a tyrant with the support of a parliament with yes-men, who manipulates elections, who jails or kills critics, who has made the free press and freedom of expression impossible and who has eroded the rule of law. And then, a year ago, the Americans again elected a president who expressed his admiration for Putin in his first term, but then still had a few officials around him who kept him in check and managed to prevent too drastic policy decisions. This time he put together a team that was not selected on the basis of knowledge and skills, but on their unconditional loyalty. And so the US now has a president who was given all the space by the Supreme Court to do whatever he wants before his second term, with a Republican majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives who let him do his thing uncritically on pain of insults and threats, a populist who disputes election results and calls on his supporters to violence, who threatens critics with imprisonment and even death, who announces to invade sovereign countries, who curtails the free press and replaces journalists by dubious podcast makers and influencers at its press conferences, and who dismantled or financially squeezed democratic and constitutional institutions.

In short, Europe is now dealing with two of a kind presidents. With the crafty version and the wannabe version that is. Putin and Trump, who pat each other on the back during mutual visits and appear to have divided spheres of influence in a nineteenth-century manner; roughly speaking, the Russian Federation owns the Eastern Hemisphere and the US owns the Western Hemisphere. At least that's how it seems, because reality is of course much more unruly. Because Trump may have exchanged the alliance with Europe for Russia, Putin has previously committed himself to a much smarter friend than Donald Trump, the Chinese ruler Xi, who also has his geopolitical ambitions. Xi supports him in his fight against 'the West' with the aim of breaking the power of the US and tilting the world order towards a multipolar power structure. It is clear that American hegemony is collapsing in this new world order, and at an accelerated pace due to Trump's actions. However, it is very unlikely that the Chinese will want to share power equally with Russia. Xi is now not stopping at his claim to annex Taiwan, but already has announced that he also includes Japan in his sphere of influence. A Western-oriented country, which has long-running territorial conflicts with Russia, especially over the Kuril Islands, and has openly sided with Ukraine since the Russian invasion. In short, a geopolitical minefield in the making.

Back to that damned Europe. That economic superpower with around 600 million inhabitants, but without any geopolitical significance or military strength. Putin has been cutting his teeth on this for some time now. His subversion and hybrid warfare have had little success so far, despite his support for the rise of far-right populists in Europe. After all, the US and Europe shared their democratic and constitutional tradition and remained each other's allies, although sometimes unwillingly. But Donald Trump has no regard for the liberal world order, international treaties and democratic traditions. Not political realism, but revenge, dealing with everything that bothers him, is what drives him. And if there is one thing his administration would like to put an end to, that’s Europe, or even more precisely: that liberal EU. Trump took great pleasure in telling his MAGA movement during his election campaign that Europeans had to pay, otherwise Putin could do whatever he wanted with them. A bomb under Article 5 of the NATO charter, and thus a de facto announcement of the impending end of the alliance. During the Munich Security Conference, Vance went one step further; Due to the mass immigration, Europe is dealing with an enemy from within and is guilty of censorship. With an ally who thinks that way about the other, one no longer shares common values. And for those who were not yet clear enough about the rift between the US and Europe, the NSS document from the Trump administration recently followed.  A substantively wafer-thin document that nevertheless leaves nothing to unclear about the relationship between the US and Europe. It earned Trump words of praise from the Kremlin.

Europe has been negligent on many fronts. Of course European countries should have paid way more for their own defense long ago, Trump is right on that point. Also the European Union econmy is lagging further behind that of the US, mainly due to the lack of innovation and investments in (information) technology. Major reforms have not been achieved in recent years, meaning the EU is still struggling with vetoes from obstructionists such as Hungary and Slovakia. National leaders of the member states are blocking further political unification, which also means that financial integration, including the formation of a single common capital union, is slow and blocks large-scale innovation. Now that geopolitical tensions are really getting serious, Europe is empty-handed in the face of the Trump administration's blackmail actions because of its dependencies. Europe accepted without countermeasures its 15% trade tariff, Trump’s baseless rhetoric that the EU was created to screw the US, and his demand to increase defense spending to 5%. Instead of counter-pressure, European leaders trolled, smeared and praised the American president. Publicly, that is, because since a recent discussion of European leaders during a conference call we know better; the German magazine Der Spiegel published quotes of European leaders that indicate they find the US under his rule completely unreliable.

In any case, keeping the US on board has failed and heel licking Trump only makes Europe weaker in the eyes of the American nationalists. It is high time for a drastic unification process, an uncompromising EU 2.0, a United States of Europe. Those who do want not participate should dropped and from that moment on they will at most belong to a second-rate EU group that muddles along according to the old rules. The leading EU member states will have to implement major economic, political and military reforms, in line with the Draghi report. Aimed at a federal Europe that, while retaining its central values, advocates tough European interest policies. Meanwhile, Europe should remain cool-headed and steadfast. A purely accommodating attitude towards the US has not proven to be the best one under the current circumstances. A combination of strategic politeness and autonomous negotiating tactics, in anticipation of greater European clout through a more competitive economy, a better-equipped defense force, and technological innovation works better. Show that Europe now takes responsibility for its own security by investing substantially in its defense capacities and at the same time does not accept an unjust peace agreement that Ukraine cannot agree to and endangers Europe's future security. Continue to communicate consistently that Trump's peace deal is primarily a deal, and not peace, no matter how much that frustrates Trump and what the costs are. And do not accept American interference in European elections or, even worse, the pursuit of regime changes in Europe. And furthermore: wait for American voters to deal with the Trump administration during the midterms next year.