America's inevitable decline and Europe's disturbing truth

“Never let a good crisis go to waste”

(Sir Winston Churchill, 1874-1965)

During his election tour, President Trump distanced himself from Project 2025, a more than 900-page document drawn up by the Heritage Foundation that outlines detailed plans for a Republican administration. He claimed he did not know what it was and that he had nothing to do with it. It turns out to be one of his many lies. With a barrage of executive orders, the Trump administration is now introducing an extensive revisionist policy plan that aims to radically reform the American government and society, as well as the international relations and legal order, according to an ultra-conservative playbook. The new administration under Trump is implementing Project 2025; nearly two-thirds of Trump's executive actions align with Project 2025 proposals. If Trump succeeds in rolling out Project 2025, depending on the outcome of legal battles and the level of resistance among the population, it will mean the end of liberal democracy in the US and the international legal order that the Free World has known since World War II.

Europe should have known what was going to happen with Trump's return and could have prepared for it. Until after his inauguration though, all European countries held their tongues. They even tried to appease him, hoping that he would continue to treat Europe as an ally. Once the disruptive executive orders and provocative plans overwhelmed about everyone, European leaders seem paralyzed by what was coming their way, looking like scared deer into the oncoming headlights of the right-wing populist American administration. And then the inevitable crash with Europe came. Trump called Putin without consulting or even informing his European NATO allies, making it clear that Ukraine nor the EU will participate in ‘his’ deal with Putin. Not yet over the shock that the Trump administration ignores its NATO allies, the next one followed. Defense Minister Hegseth stated even before bilateral negotiations with Russia had begun that the aggressor would be allowed to keep the conquered territory and that Ukraine could not become a member of NATO. Vice President Vance then, instead of discussing Ukraine with his European counterparts, lectured Europe during the Munich Security Conference about everything but a sustainable peace. Trump called Zelensky a dictator and suggested he could have ended the war if he wanted to. The Trump administration also lobbied countries to block Ukraine's call to condemn Russia for the war of aggression. Vance and Trump's disgusting tirade against Zelensky in the White House was the absolute nadir. The astonishment among European leaders was complete. Understandable, as it became clear the Trump administration is more interested in a quick deal with Putin than a just peace and security guarantees for Ukraine, which will have a huge impact on all of Europe. A deal by the way that hasn't happened after 100 days and is very unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future, simply because Putin doesn’t want peace with a free and democratic Ukraine.

The realization in Europe is slowly dawning that right-wing populists like Trump, Vance and Musk like to see a divided and weak Europe. Just like Putin, who is trying to pit Europe against each other with hybrid warfare, disinformation campaigns and supporting rightwing populist parties. And that seems to be working well, partly thanks to Europe's own policy. The EU prefers to maintain the outdated system of sovereign national governments, instead of building a united European superpower capable of competing in the power politics game with the US and China. European politicians have proven to be champions of introducing rules, but have neglected Europe's security for decades. They were more than happy to leave that to the Americans, despite the many warnings that Europe had to do more about its own defense. It turned out to be grist for the mill of the MAGA populists, who are now striking back after their generous election victory. Allegedly Trump told NATO secretary general Rutte he is still committed to NATO. That could well turn out to be another lie. Project 2025 wants Washington to end US military presence in Europe. It remains to be seen if Trump shows up at the NATO summit in The Hague next month. If he doesn’t, or makes his usual threats to his NATO partners, the long-standing transatlantic relationship is over. A scenario that French President Charles de Gaulle had already foreseen, when he openly doubted whether the US would come to the aid of Western Europe in the event of Russian aggression. Thanks to de Gaulle the EU now has at least one nuclear force to deter the Kremlin. Trump focuses on the battle with China and ignores Russian aggression in Europe - the United States is to withdraw from ICPA, the International Centre for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine, an international center in The Hague that investigates the Russian invasion of Ukraine. One of the many fatal miscalculations this US administration is making. Trump's policies are accelerating the inevitable decline of US hegemony and XI and Putin see the chances of a new world order increasing by the day.

The crisis facing the West, a war on the European continent as a result of Russian aggression combined with an eroding NATO, poses enormous challenges for Europe. The disturbing truth is that Europe is irrelevant on the world stage, mainly because of its internal divisions, substandard defense capabilities and complete lack of power politics. Now that totally inexperienced negotiators designated by an erratic and completely unreliable real estate mogul in the White House are dealing with hardened negotiators representing an aggressive revisionist mafia regime in the Kremlin, Europe is extremely vulnerable. Trump, who before his election boasted of ending the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, is threatening to walk away from negotiations now that it has become clear that Russia does not want peace. Exactly the scenario the Kremlin would like to see. Russian propaganda always portrayed the US as the great enemy and the Europeans as slavish followers. Now, the state media are already calling the US Russia’s partner and Europe it’s enemy.

So what can Europe do to not waste this crises? A lot more than we did so far. And a lot more than many people think we are capable of. The EU is supporting Ukraine, but it has been too little, too late. Europe allowed the Russian annexation of Crimea without resistance, accepted the downing of flight MH17 by Russian-minded militant groups and told Ukraine after the Russian invasion to restrain itself for the fear of escalation - escalation is apparently reserved for Putin. And yet the Ukrainians hold on, even though a fifth of their territory is occupied and they suffer day in and day out from Russian terror. Europe is far from powerless, but has great difficulty in organizing and using its power. The EU, with its 450 million inhabitants, has an economy eight times larger than that of Russia, has enormous financial resources, and is able to produce technologically advanced products. If the EU manages to translate this position into the right organizational framework, Europe must be able to offer Ukraine a security guarantee and ensure its own security - which will also involve reciprocity, because Ukraine now has a hardened army and an unprecedentedly innovative arms industry. All the more reason to keep Ukraine in the Western camp.

Now that the majority of European politicians, as well as their voters, realize that a strong defense is desperately needed, numerous initiatives are being developed. The EU has clear agreements on collective defense, including on the basis of Article 42 of the Lisbon Treaty. Other Member States must assist with all possible means if an EU member state is attacked on its territory. This obligation is equal to the obligation that the EU member states have as members of NATO. Given this collective obligation the EU launched an ambitious plan to significantly strengthen European defense capacity and achieve a more independent position from the US within NATO. The plan, called Rearm Europe (recently renamed Readiness 2030), aims to invest € 800 billion in defense until 2030. To this end, member states may relax the budgetary rules by excluding additional defense expenditure from normal EU budgetary rules. There will also be a new financial instrument (called SAFE), that will allow the European Commission to borrow up to € 150 billion on the capital market for joint purchase and production of weapons, ammunition, missiles, artillery systems and drones. The plan also aims to stimulate innovation and ensure a strong, integrated European market for defense equipment.

A number of European countries and allies are jointly providing support to Ukraine against Russian aggression. These countries are referred to as the coalition of the willing, a term more often used for a (temporary) international alliance of countries that work together to achieve a specific goal, usually of a military or political nature. France and the United Kingdom are the leaders of the initiative, but with the election of Merz in Germany, that country will also play a leading role. The coalition of the willing focuses mainly on planning and coordinating military support to Ukraine, such as the supply of weapons, ammunition and the training of Ukrainian troops. The coalition is also preparing for various scenarios surrounding the war in Ukraine, such as the possible maintenance of a ceasefire and offering security guarantees to Ukraine. The countries participating in the coalition largely finance their support to Ukraine from their own national defense budgets, which they have often increased for this purpose. In addition to the coalition of the willing, the Weimar Group (also known as the Weimar Triangle) is also actively involved in European integration and security. The Weimar Group is a diplomatic partnership between Germany, France and Poland, which was founded in 1991 to promote European integration, strengthen cooperation between Western and Eastern Europe and develop joint positions on important European issues. The group meets regularly at ministerial and sometimes at government leadership level to discuss current international issues, such as the war in Ukraine.

So plenty of plans, consultations, ideas and sanctions. But is it enough? Will Europe emerge stronger from this severe crisis, undoubtedly the worst crisis since the World War II? If it is the prelude to further and far-reaching European integration, most certainly. If Europe does not work together more closely, the future for The Old World looks a lot bleaker.